He’s baaaaaaaaaack…

Surprise! Brett Favre signed with the Minnesota Vikings. He will be in the purple and gold next season and will compete for the starting job against Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels.

Or is it a surprise? Did anyone else see this coming?

This irks me for so many reasons. First off, why are the Vikings encouraging this guy? Once he said he was coming back at the beginning of the summer people were already sick of hearing him talk. He said he was getting surgery, then he was going to stay retired…then he said he was applying at Target for the head cashier position…and now he decides to play professional football again.

He is- and always has been-a drama queen. The only reason it was OK when he was on the Packers is because the guy could throw the ball like it was shot out of a cannon. More importantly, he won games. Last year on the Jets he showed flashes for the first part of the season, but his aging/injured arm should have been all the reason in the world to hang it up.

If you are the Vikings, how can you hang your young, talented team out to dry like this? They have the most potent run game in the league with Adrian Peterson. The Vikes also have an offense built and designed around speed and quickness. They drafted the lightning-rod Percy Harvin and signed speedster Bernard Berrian last year. Now add the much younger Jackson or Rosenfels to the mix and you have an offense that will cause headaches for defenses every week. The last thing this team needs is a 40 year-old who I guarantee will throw more picks than touchdowns this year.

Now that’s off my chest, lets talk fantasy value. He will help out the young wide outs running down the sideline by being able to throw the deep ball. I can see an improvement in Harvin’s and Berrian’s stock, and perhaps gives Sidney Rice some late round consideration. As for Favre himself he will probably be a good spot start for most leagues. His interception problem will hurt you (especially if it means negative points) but no doubt he is due for at least two or three eye popping games this year. They do play Detroit twice…

If the Vikings had any faith in their team right now, they wouldn’t have exposed them to the biggest distraction in the sport- Brett Favre.

RGF Projected Stats- 3065 yds, 18 tds, 23 ints

Off the Cuff : RGFFootball Writer in WSOP Main Event

Lewis deep in thought at the 2009 WSOP

Just to let you know – Dave Lewis, one of our writers at rgffootball.com, won a free seat at the World Series of Poker Main Event. He lasted until the last level of Day 2 against some of poker’s biggest names.

The writers at RGFfootball want to congratulate Lewis on this achievement and playing in the world’s biggest poker tournament!

-C & J

Passing of a Great Titan: Steve McNair killed in Nashville

Steve McNair was found dead on Saturday at a downtown condominium. The cause of the death is currently unknown and is currently under investigation.

As a football fan, I admired Steve McNair’s undying leadership on and off the field. He will be remembered for his dedication to the game and his tireless work; which led him to numerous playoff berths, including a SuperBowl.

The writers at rgffootball.com offer their condolences and prayers to the McNair family.

MOCK DRAFT: The First Round – Ten Burning Questions

I must admit, this might go down as one of the most unpredictable first rounds I’ve seen in my fantasy football career. Blame it on the RB-by-committee, emerging rookies, injuries, or perhaps the a-a-a-a–a-a-alcohol that will be at your draft (er, or soda for you minors).

Of course, there are some things that do not change. Drafting a quarterback within the first five picks is a no-no (except for Brady last year, but we all know how that panned out). If you are at the end of the first round and there is a Drew Brees FatHead staring at you, I’ll concede a man-crush pick.

If you have the 11th pick and he is staring at you, go ahead and draft Drew Brees.

However, WRs are so deep this year that wasting a first round pick on one is a bad choice. Besides, I don’t envision a WR being drafted until the second round. Lebron James doesn’t play football (yet), so drafting a TE would be foolish. K, DEF…I don’t think you would be reading this.

That being said, my first round mock draft is based solely on select attributes. These attributes can be determined based on answering these questions:

1. Is the RB in a committee? If so, does the ratio favor them as the primary back?This has become the burning question for all fantasy football owners. GMs and coaches now try to lengthen the careers of their backs by, well, playing less. I’m not surprised to see teams now with 3-4 running backs getting a significant amount of carries on any given Sunday. The question to answer here is – how good are the other backs?  This will determine the number of carries for the RB, and ultimately the number of yards/scoring opportunities.

2. Are they the go-to guy inside the red zone? This is also a big question. Touchdowns are crucial to the winning of fantasy football. If 20 yards = 1 point, an RB that rushes for 125 yds and 0 TDs equals the fantasy production of a goal line back who run for 5 yards and 1 TD.

3. Are they in a contract year? Like everyone else in America, you come in the work early and leave late during your review period. You push yourself to do better, work harder, get more accomplished. Running backs that are in their contract year (last year of their contract) are looking to splash a big payday in the following year. Look to these RBs to give it their all on the field.

4. Has there been any injuries to either knee or hamstring within the last 2 years? Injuries make or break your season. Hamstrings and knees (actually, any part of the leg) ususally cripple the fantasy production of running backs. If you are taking a player coming off surgery, make sure to grab a handcuff or build some depth.

5. How often will their team be winning at the start of the second half?How do NFL teams win? Control the game clock. Ask the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have some new hardware on their hands. In this day and age, you will see teams try to control the clock (except for the 2007 Patriots who just seemed to keep throwing to Randy Moss). This means sticking the ball in the RB’s hand and saying “stay in bounds, try to get the first down so we can kill more game clock”. With the exception of fumble and INT returns for TDs, opposing teams can’t score on you if they don’t have the ball.

On the other side of the equation, a team that has the ball and is down 2+ possessions will most likely start throwing. These RB’s will be seldom used during the “comeback”, unless they are used in the passing offense (Brian Westbrook, anyone?).

6. How good is their team’s offensive line? Are they known as run blockers or pass blockers? Regardless of their specialty, the importance of the battle in the trenches is crucial. Look to see teams that are determined to protect their starters with a brick wall of an offensive line. Also, look at the depth at offensive line and or how injury-prone the starters are.

7. How often is the back used in passing plays? This is more of a bonus, but if you are in a PPR league this increases the value dramatically.

8. What, generally, is the coach’s primary offensive scheme? A pass-happy offense (ie. West Coast) does not help the value of a RB. A balanced offense is ideal, as a team predominately known for running the ball down their throat can cause a good defense to stack the line.

9. How’s the schedule look? Theres an easy way to do this. Start at zer0. Add one if you are playing a bad defensive team at home. Subtract one if you are playing a good defensive team on the road. The rest, don’t change.

If you have a positive number, then most likely the schedule is in your favor. If negative, probably not.

Instead of trying to do W-L, YPG allowed, etc…most of the time your gut feeling on how a defense will perform at home and on the road is true.

10. Are they a “feel good” player? Are they considered a “safe” or “sexy” pick? Superstitious?Do you feel good or nervous having this player on your roster? A first round draft pick is a year committment, most of the time. Not that it applies here, but do you believe in the Madden curse? “Safe” and “Sexy” pick refers to the volatility of the production. Do you want 200 yds 4 TDs one week, and 16 YDs 0 TDs the next?

These are the burning questions all owners must look at while deciding their future. That in mind, here is my mock first round:

1. Adrian Peterson- Like OU’s Blake Griffin, the consensus #1 pick in the draft. Led the league last year in rushing yards with a 4.8 YPC. Just keep an eye out on that ankle. He will look to carry the offense on his shoulders again (with or without Brett Favre).

**Note: This draft gets really hairy after the number one pick. There are about 8 people that can go 2-6, so I’m sure you will see one of the possible 8P4 (what is 8P4, you ask?) combinations at your draft.

2. Maurice Jones Drew- Now that Fred Taylor is a Patriot, could MJD finally break 200 carries, 1000 yards, and 13 TD’s? I say yes. Could be the long-awaited breakout year. Offensive line here will help him accomplish that.

3. Michael Turner- Turner was the LT backing up LT in San Diego. He proved that last year with the Falcons, hitting paydirt 17 times and rushing for close to 1700 yards. I expect the same workload this year, with Tony Gonzo coming over to keep the defense honest.

4. Matt Forte - Another solid producer in his rookie campaign. My fear – the sophomore slump curse (the one I hate the most) and  the addition of Jay Cutler to the Bears (who wil throw, throw, and throw some more).

5. Frank Gore -Frank is a beast. A workhorse for the 49ers, he will have yet another solid year. The only thing is he need’s a good QB in front of him to be effective. Otherwise, expect 8 defensive players eying his jersey.

6. DeAngelo Williams – This Panther emerged as the best RB of 2008. You can’t argue with 1500+ yds and 18 TDs. Why so low? Meet Johnathan Stewart, the other member of the committee. I’d suggest drafting both if DeAngelo misses a beat.

7. Brian Westbrook – He is what’s called the “safe” pick. I’ve always seen him drafted as a first rounder since he broke out in the NFL. However, now with Buckhalter out, DeSean Jackson primed to break out, and huge upgrades  on the OL, Westbrook could be looking at a huge year.

8. Chris Johnson – He is one of the most fun players to watch in the NFL. His rookie season showed him slicing and dicing defenses, even when they threw 8 in the box. He’s got a crowded backfield, however, so keep and eye out on that committee.

9. Marion Barber – Caveat – Wade Phillips want Felix Jones to take on a starting role, and have Marion Barber go with the goal line. Also, Tashard Choice is going to be sprinkled in here and there, and that worries me as well. This makes me think Barber’s toe isn’t fully healed, cutting into his workload and overall carries.

That being said, goal line carries are goal line carries. This is the definition of a ”sexy” pick.

10. LT - Wow. Would you ever believe I’d be talking about Ladanian Tomlinson, the perennial #1 pick, being drafted at #10 in my mock?

Listen – Like the stock market, past results do not guarantee future earnings. He’s not #1 material - but if he can bounce back from his career low year (which, by the way, still was 1,110 yards and 11 TDs), you might look very, very smart grabbing him at this pick.

11. Drew Brees  – the FatHead’s on my wall…

I can’t ignore his numbers last year, and being the 11 pick I can grab my #1 running back at 14 and not stand to lose anything by drafting a Steven Jackson or Steve Slaton. Two rounds, two impact players. I’d love to get the #11 spot.

12. Clinton Portis – Portis is Portis. He’s showed great resolve over the past 2 years, playing in all 16 games and instilling confidence in fantasy owners once again. But, as he is probably the only weapon the ‘Skins have, he will face a lot of defenders targeting him.

Round 2 Coming up Next Week!

Buyer Beware: Fantasy Footaball Busts 2009

James McPartlin- Vice President

Everyone is very aware of how bad this economy is. Money is extremely tight. So when you are drafting this year don’t get caught paying too much for your players. Make sure you get the most value for your pick even if it means passing up on a brand name and buying generic. Every year I have a list of players I wouldn’t touch unless I was getting ridiculous value for my pick. To establish some credibility I did worn fantasy owners last year to stay away from Brett Favre, Tom Brady, Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, and Willie Parker. There are just some guys that are in situations where the risk out weighs the reward or I wouldn’t be getting enough value out of my pick. Here is my list of players to let other owners draft this summer otherwise buyer beware.

LaDanian Tomlinson RB San Diego Chargers- I am anticipating some flack for putting this future Hall of Fame Running Back on my Do Not Draft List. Here’s the thing, Tomlinson will reach the dreaded 30 years old mark at the start of the season. In addition the Chargers made sure they applied the franchise tag on Darren Sproles who took advantage of every opportunity given to him by Tomlinson’s injuries late last season. Tomlinson posted career low numbers in rushing attempts (292), and yardage (1110) which is still respectable in the NFL however it is not worth the 1st round price tag owners will be paying this season. The Chargers have the problem that they have so many offensive weapons that there is not enough ball to go around. Chambers, Jackson, Gates, and Sproles including  LT will being fighting for balls this season more  than Neil Patrick Harris and Lance Bass in a gay bar . Look for Sproles to steal some carries late in games and on some third down situations as the Chargers should try to preserve their 30 year old work horse.

Philip Rivers QB San Diego Chargers- I am not attacking the San Diego Chargers actually they are going to greatly improve on there 8-8 record they posted last year and that is percisely why Rivers will be over drafted. Rivers went for 4009 yards last season and 34 TDs. Rivers had to toss the rock though because the Chargers were down in a lot of games. Look for the Defense to re-establish itself this season and for Rivers’s numbers to come back down to earth as a result of that. In addition The Chargers face the toughest schedule in the NFL against the pass. Rivers will still be good for 3500 yards and roughly 25 TDs however Schuab, McNabb, Garrard, and Palmer will all post similar stats at a discounted price.

Thomas Jones – RB New York Jets -  My sleeper last year paid off with a career year an AFC leading 1312 yards and a remarkable 13 TDs despite a pitiful 2 total the year prior. His sleeper status came at the fact that the Jets reinforced a solid O-line with Alan Faneca and there was no other threat to take the ball away from the 30 year old Jones last year. This season Jones will be 31 and the Jets went out and drafted Shonn Greene. Now Jones will benefit if the Jets drop the ball and rush Mark Sanchez under center however if the Jets play it smart Kellen Clemens will see a full season at QB and Jones’s numbers will drop off. Jones is an age risk at 31 and will be sharing carries with Shonn Green and Leon Washington will not go carry-less this season.

Clinton Portis- RB Washington Redskins- Portis is 28 years old but in the last two seasons no one has carried the pigskin more than Portis(642 carries from 2007-2008). Portis started to collapse in the second half of 2008. The wear and tear is what scares me about Portis and no one likes to see a top pick not pan out.

Brian Westbrook- RB Philidelphia Eagles- Westbrook is coming off ankle surgery this year and he’s not getting any younger as he is hitting the dread 30 yr mark come September 2nd. Mix that with LeSean McCoy being drafted to eventually replace Westbrook and you’ve go all the fixin’s for a high risk martini.

Antonio Bryant- WR Tampa Bay Buccanneers-  I know Bryant is typically known for his consistency and dominate play (that was sarcasm for those who didn’t know who Bryant was till last year). Bryant has a new quarterback this year with Byron Leftwich or Josh Freeman we’ll see. Bryant also has a new coach as Raheem Morris has replace Jon Gruden.

Eli Manning- QB New York Giants- Manning grew up a lot from 2007 to 2008 but I have a feeling he is going to miss the presence of Plaxico Burress over the top and Derrik Ward underneath not to mention Amani Toomer is also no longer on the team.

Other Statistics that will help with getting the most bang for your buck.

Cover Of Madden Curse- Larry Fitzgerald

Over Worked Runningbacks 2007-2008

Clinton Portis- 642

LaDanian Tomlinson- 607

Thomas Jones- 600

Jamal Lewis-577

Adrian Peterson-576

Willie Parker-531

Marshawn Lynch-531

Brian Westbrrok-511

Lendal White- 503

Frank Gore- 500

Ryan Grant- 500

Steven Jackson- 491

30+ Year Old Backs

Edgerrin James

Thomas Jones

Jamal Lewis

Fred Taylor

LaDanian Tomlinson

Ricky Williams

Its that time of year again…

Were gearing up for more mock drafts…stay tuned!

NFL Draft Hangover

Notables from the NFL draft:

1. Matthew Stafford seemed very relaxed on draft day. It must be nice knowing you are getting millions of dollars of guaranteed money prior to being selected. That’s enough money to forget it is still the Detroit Lions. However, there is upside here – Dante Culpepper has been improving (that is, he has lost nearly 30lbs) and has looked good during workouts. If Culpepper can hold out long enough for Stafford to learn the system, he’s got some nice weapons to throw to (including first rounder Brandon Pettigrew).

2. Picks 4-7 would determine the tone for the rest of the day. All of the drama would take place during this 35-40 minutes. It surely did not dissapoint. Watching the Jets trade up to the 5th pick to take Mark Sanchez was a stunner. Rex Ryan now has a rookie quarterback that can control the offense. Couple that with 3 solid running backs, and vastly improved and explosive defense…sounds a whole lot like the Ravens system.

2(a). Darrius Heyward-Bey. I never have and will never understand the logic of the Oakland Raiders. I think they seriously do things out of spite. I have no problem whatsoever with the selection, but trade out to another team and get an additional 3rd-4th rounder (at least…). I projected Bey going to the (Jets) Browns at 17.

3. The Buccaneers not only drafting Josh Freeman, but trading up to draft Josh Freeman. Surprise move, to say the least. Freeman has raw talent but will need to learn the pro system before he will produce. One must think he has to make the team first, as the Bucs usually have an average of 7 QB’s at the start of training camp…

4. Giants found their potential replacement to Burress with Hakeem Nicks. I really, really like this pick. He looked great in the skills competition and the combine and could be a potential impact player week 1.

5. The drafting of not one, but two centers in the first round. First time that has happened since 1983. That being said, I don’t understand Eric Mangini’s moves, at all. Trading down twice to draft a center in the first round. They easily could have drafted Mack round 2 at the 36th pick, and could have taken the falling Maclin at 17 or 19.

Next week I will analyze the rest of the draft, along with rankings of impact rookies for the forthcoming fantasy football season.

Giants Tag Jacobs

The New York Giants place the franchise tag on Running Back Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs will be playing for the Giants next season making $6.6 million, unless a team thinks Jacobs is worth two first round draft selections. In other fantasy related news this means that Derrick Ward’s on his way out of New York. Ward could possibly cut into another runningback’s work load next season, while Jacobs will get the better half over teammate Ahmad Bradshaw. Both the Giants and Brandon Jacobs are both optimistic that a long term deal can be hammered out, although with Jacobs smashmouth running style he might not get the years he is looking for.

Top 10 Historic Super Bowls

David Lewis, Vice President of Operations

This top list is not a list of the top games in the Super Bowl. This list is about the top 10 Super Bowls in terms of importance to the NFL. These games had historic ramifications that are still felt today

10. (Tie) between XXX  Dallas over Pittsburgh 27-17 and XXXIX New England over Philadelphia 24-21. These two are tied since they are significant for the same reason. These Super Bowls marked two dynastys being crowned. These wins allowed Dallas and New England to win 3 Super Bowls in 4 years. These are the only two franchises to accomplish this feet.

9. I Green Bay over Kansas City 35-10. This game was fairly boring and uninspiring. However, since it was the first Super Bowl ever and continued Green Bay’s dominance of the NFL it remains a historic Super Bowl.

8. XIV Pittsburgh over LA Rams 31-19. This marked the second time the Steelers went back to back. They are the only franchise to win back to back Super Bowls multiple times. They also won 4 times in 6 years, which is another accomplishment no other team has achieved.

7. XXIV San Francisco over Denver 55-10. This game was historic since it allowed Joe Montana to become the only 3 time Super Bowl MVP in NFL history. This game also marked the 3rd time the Broncos lost in four years.

6. XXXVI New England over St. Louis 20-17. This is the only Super Bowl where the winning team scored on the final play of the game. This was the second greatest upset in Super Bowl history according to the spread of the game at 14 points. This was the start of a dynasty and the end of the Greatest Show on Turf.

5. XXXII Denver over Green Bay 31-24. Winning this game allowed John Elway to finally raise the Lombardi trophy. This was one of the greatest upsets in Super Bowl history with Denver being an 11 point underdog against the defending Super Bowl Champion.

4. XLIII Pittsburgh over Arizona 27-23. This win gave Pittsburgh their 6th title which is the most among the NFL franchises. With 6 Super Bowl championships the Steelers become the best franchise in the NFL.

3. VII Miami over Washington 14-7. The win by Miami marked the only undefeated season in NFL history. The Dolphins finished 17-0, which seemed in jeopardy until our #2 historic Super Bowl.

2. XLII New York Giants over New England 17-14. The Giants ended the Patriots pursuit of perfection. The Patriots were trying to become the first ever 19-0 team and only the second undefeated team in NFL history. The Giants became only the second team ever to win 3 road playoffs game and then win the Super Bowl.

1. III New York Jets over Baltimore Colts 16-7. The Jets’ upset over the Colts will remain the most historical Super Bowl in NFL history. The AFL was inferior and had been slaughtered in the first two Super Bowls. The 13-1 Colts were favored by 18 and were expected to cover. Joe Namath guaranteed a Jets’ win and the AFL underdogs pulled the greatest upset in NFL history. If the Jets lose that game the AFL pulls out of the Super Bowl and the two leagues most likely never merge. The NFL would be a completely different sport today if the Colts won that game.

Team of the Decade

David Lewis, Vice President of Operations

Sunday night the Pittsburgh Steelers won their second Super Bowl title in four years. With their recent success many people are calling them the team of the decade. How quickly we forget how one year ago we were ready to call the New England Patriots the greatest team ever and now some aren’t even calling them the greatest team of the decade. Here is how their records since 2000 stack up against each other:

Team	Record	Playoff app.	Playoff record	Championships
Patriots	102-42	6	14-3	3 (‘01, ‘03, ‘04)
Steelers	94-49-1	6	10-4	2 (‘05, ‘08)

Not included in those stats is the fact that the Patriots defeated the Steelers in Heinz Field in two AFC Championship games. The Steelers have been fortunate that they have not faced the Patriots in the playoffs in their Championship seasons. The Patriots have played in 2 more Super Bowls this decade than the Steelers, have a better regular season record, have a better playoff record, and are 2-0 against the Steelers in the playoffs. The decade is soon ending and unless the Steelers go 19-0 next year I don’t even believe a Super Bowl Championship gives them that title over the New England Patriots.