Analyzing The First Round- Picks 5-8

By Christopher J Dutra

Picks 5-8 are arguably the toughest positions in the whole draft for owners. The best fantasy players are off the board, and you are usually left with a myriad of second tier players with marginal difference in production. It takes a lot of work and extended research to get the guy that can headline your roster, only to see him be taken one pick before you. It is usually a crazy time for all parties interested.

Now, if you manage to be at a draft in which everyone is heavily drunk and say, Ladanian Tomlinson is available at pick 5, by all means draft Ladanian. If anyone I mentioned in the previous installment is available at your pick (of course, barring any injuries or situations that occurred after this was published), DRAFT THAT PLAYER. For purposes of this draft, I going to assume the first four people in the draft are smart, responsible people and drafted AP, LT, and Westbrook for the first three picks. The fourth pick, for arguments sake, was Steven Jackson.

Tier 2 (Picks 5-6-7-8 in a 12 Team League)

TAKE THESE PLAYERS

(any player that was not selected in the first tier-AP, LT, Westbrook, JAX)
Joseph Addai – RB, Indianapolis Colts

This is the only player I recommend be definitely taken in the second tier. Addai is a feature back in Indy. He doesn’t have the reputation of the former backs, but should be the youngest pick of the first round. If Indy continues to blow out opponents in games then Addai will receive garbage time production. Kenton Keith or Dominic Rhodes do not pose as threats for an RBBC. He has been taken overall in the 5-6 pick region and should not drop any lower than that.

PLAYERS TO TAKE A LONG HARD LOOK AT
Tom Brady – QB, New England Patriots
Randy Moss – WR, New England Patriots
Clinton Portis – RB Washington Redskins
Marion Barber – RB Dallas Cowboys

In my previous article, I mentioned not to take Tom Brady with one of the first 4 picks of the draft due to the fact you could end up with a not as stellar RB at the end of the second round. However, the middle tier is acceptable for Brady to be selected. First off, the RB you select in the 2nd round isn’t amazing, but you aren’t in as bad position as you would be in the first tier. In my opinion Addai ends the top tier of RBs. If you aren’t sold on Portis at this point due to his history of injury, then maybe passing up an RB for Brady is a good idea. If Brady is taken at your point in the draft and you still want to snag some of that fantasy production in New England, Randy Moss is there. However, Brady shouldn’t be drafted after Moss in my opinion.

However, I encourage drafters to take a long hard look at Marion Barber. His production last year was pretty good, collecting 10 TDs although rushing for just under 1000 yards. When the Cowboys won (which was 13 times last year), Barber not only scored all of his touchdowns, but sported a 4.9 YPC. This is a stark contrast to the three losses, where he only had 75 yards and a 3.4 YPC.

Here’s the critical factor: Julius Jones, who had 164 carries last year (to Barber’s 204), had 588 yards and 2 TD’s last season. He’s now in Seattle. The RBBC is gone, and Felix Jones isn’t about the fill that spot as a rookie. Barber is the featured back now in Dallas and I expect great numbers from him this year.

AVOID DRAFTING AT THIS POINT

Marshawn Lynch RB, Buffalo Bills
Frank Gore RB, San Francisco 49ers

I tend to stay away from players in the first round that do not have well-established offenses (AP and Jackson are the offense in their respective squads, so I’d draft them). The players under center for the Bills and 49ers are in no ways comparable to their predecessors of the 1990s. Thus, I think defenses create a game plan around stopping these two. Regardless, they are not to be drafted with picks 5-8 as there are enough powerful options mentioned above.