Tom Brady-Fantasy Football Draft Risk?

-Christopher Dutra

Roger Federer, Michael Phelps, Tiger Woods, Mariano Rivera.

What do all of these players have in common? Easy. They have undoubtedly, been at the top of their game-for an extended period of time. They will most likely walk away from the sport still at the apex of their careers.

Why are there no football players on that list? There is an easy to answer that. For one, injuries occur more frequently in football than any other sport. Football is probably the second most liable sport for injuries to occur (first being Rugby, but let’s face it-The New Zealand National team would destroy an All-NFL team in football).  Second, things change more rapidly in the NFL than the other organizations. This has to do with ownership and contract issues. It is seen a lot in the NFL, MLB, and NBA, where free agency and NFL draft trades reorganize teams almost completely. And let’s be honest-a star is only as good as it’s supporting cast (case in point-Randy Moss).

To really get down to it, look at the careers of the names mentioned above. Nothing really changes for Phelps, whose train-eat-train-eat mentality will kick up soon in preparation for 2012 in London. Federer and Tiger aren’t on a team. Rather, they strive for the top spot in individual sports. In my mind, that seems easier for a great athlete to accomplish because there are less variable obstacles (teammates). While Rivera manages to avoid all of this being in the MLB, I will consider him an exception to this underlying rule: it is very hard in team sports to stay on top for long.

This is why Tom Brady seems to be a riskier pick than most people think. Forget about Brady’s ankle for a moment and let’s dig down into some numbers. They are very consistent, until last year.

	Team	QBRat	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	Int
2001	New England	86.5	264	413	63.9	2843	189.5	6.9	18	12
2002	New England	85.7	373	601	62.1	3764	235.3	6.3	28	14
2003	New England	85.9	317	527	60.2	3620	226.3	6.9	23	12
2004	New England	92.6	288	474	60.8	3692	230.8	7.8	28	14
2005	New England	92.3	334	530	63	4110	256.9	7.8	26	14
2006	New England	87.9	319	516	61.8	3529	220.6	6.8	24	12
2007	New England	117.2	398	578	68.9	4806	300.4	8.3	50	8

Source: Yahoo.com

The spike in production is noticeably different in every single category. Why? Because Tom Brady was, simply put, ridiculous out on the field. I don’t think I have to explain it much more than that. However, nobody expected it. Not even the mastermind with his cut-off sleeves. Last year was the result of a very good quarterback who knows how to win, but finally doing it with solid receiving options.

That was 2007. This is 2008. While New England’s schedule is one of the softest in the league (they would be docked points if the BCS were used in the pros-God help us), defenses are preparing to try and shut Brady down.  Defenses looked to contain Brady, Moss, and Welker-and partially succeeded. In comparison to the first half,  Brady “struggled” the latter half of the season. I think there will be an emphatic response again from defenses, thus Brady’s numbers aren’t going to repeat.

Do not get me wrong-I picked the Pats to go to the AFC Championship game. Brady will still have a great season. However, it will parallel more with his consistency from the other years instead of the offensive explosion we saw last year.

Before anything, however, Brady needs to step out onto the field and get that ankle healed. Know who will not have a breakout fantasy season? Any of the Patriot backup QB’s.