Buyer Beware: Fantasy Footaball Busts 2009

James McPartlin- Vice President

Everyone is very aware of how bad this economy is. Money is extremely tight. So when you are drafting this year don’t get caught paying too much for your players. Make sure you get the most value for your pick even if it means passing up on a brand name and buying generic. Every year I have a list of players I wouldn’t touch unless I was getting ridiculous value for my pick. To establish some credibility I did worn fantasy owners last year to stay away from Brett Favre, Tom Brady, Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, and Willie Parker. There are just some guys that are in situations where the risk out weighs the reward or I wouldn’t be getting enough value out of my pick. Here is my list of players to let other owners draft this summer otherwise buyer beware.

LaDanian Tomlinson RB San Diego Chargers- I am anticipating some flack for putting this future Hall of Fame Running Back on my Do Not Draft List. Here’s the thing, Tomlinson will reach the dreaded 30 years old mark at the start of the season. In addition the Chargers made sure they applied the franchise tag on Darren Sproles who took advantage of every opportunity given to him by Tomlinson’s injuries late last season. Tomlinson posted career low numbers in rushing attempts (292), and yardage (1110) which is still respectable in the NFL however it is not worth the 1st round price tag owners will be paying this season. The Chargers have the problem that they have so many offensive weapons that there is not enough ball to go around. Chambers, Jackson, Gates, and Sproles including  LT will being fighting for balls this season more  than Neil Patrick Harris and Lance Bass in a gay bar . Look for Sproles to steal some carries late in games and on some third down situations as the Chargers should try to preserve their 30 year old work horse.

Philip Rivers QB San Diego Chargers- I am not attacking the San Diego Chargers actually they are going to greatly improve on there 8-8 record they posted last year and that is percisely why Rivers will be over drafted. Rivers went for 4009 yards last season and 34 TDs. Rivers had to toss the rock though because the Chargers were down in a lot of games. Look for the Defense to re-establish itself this season and for Rivers’s numbers to come back down to earth as a result of that. In addition The Chargers face the toughest schedule in the NFL against the pass. Rivers will still be good for 3500 yards and roughly 25 TDs however Schuab, McNabb, Garrard, and Palmer will all post similar stats at a discounted price.

Thomas Jones – RB New York Jets -  My sleeper last year paid off with a career year an AFC leading 1312 yards and a remarkable 13 TDs despite a pitiful 2 total the year prior. His sleeper status came at the fact that the Jets reinforced a solid O-line with Alan Faneca and there was no other threat to take the ball away from the 30 year old Jones last year. This season Jones will be 31 and the Jets went out and drafted Shonn Greene. Now Jones will benefit if the Jets drop the ball and rush Mark Sanchez under center however if the Jets play it smart Kellen Clemens will see a full season at QB and Jones’s numbers will drop off. Jones is an age risk at 31 and will be sharing carries with Shonn Green and Leon Washington will not go carry-less this season.

Clinton Portis- RB Washington Redskins- Portis is 28 years old but in the last two seasons no one has carried the pigskin more than Portis(642 carries from 2007-2008). Portis started to collapse in the second half of 2008. The wear and tear is what scares me about Portis and no one likes to see a top pick not pan out.

Brian Westbrook- RB Philidelphia Eagles- Westbrook is coming off ankle surgery this year and he’s not getting any younger as he is hitting the dread 30 yr mark come September 2nd. Mix that with LeSean McCoy being drafted to eventually replace Westbrook and you’ve go all the fixin’s for a high risk martini.

Antonio Bryant- WR Tampa Bay Buccanneers-  I know Bryant is typically known for his consistency and dominate play (that was sarcasm for those who didn’t know who Bryant was till last year). Bryant has a new quarterback this year with Byron Leftwich or Josh Freeman we’ll see. Bryant also has a new coach as Raheem Morris has replace Jon Gruden.

Eli Manning- QB New York Giants- Manning grew up a lot from 2007 to 2008 but I have a feeling he is going to miss the presence of Plaxico Burress over the top and Derrik Ward underneath not to mention Amani Toomer is also no longer on the team.

Other Statistics that will help with getting the most bang for your buck.

Cover Of Madden Curse- Larry Fitzgerald

Over Worked Runningbacks 2007-2008

Clinton Portis- 642

LaDanian Tomlinson- 607

Thomas Jones- 600

Jamal Lewis-577

Adrian Peterson-576

Willie Parker-531

Marshawn Lynch-531

Brian Westbrrok-511

Lendal White- 503

Frank Gore- 500

Ryan Grant- 500

Steven Jackson- 491

30+ Year Old Backs

Edgerrin James

Thomas Jones

Jamal Lewis

Fred Taylor

LaDanian Tomlinson

Ricky Williams