MOCK DRAFT: The First Round – Ten Burning Questions

I must admit, this might go down as one of the most unpredictable first rounds I’ve seen in my fantasy football career. Blame it on the RB-by-committee, emerging rookies, injuries, or perhaps the a-a-a-a–a-a-alcohol that will be at your draft (er, or soda for you minors).

Of course, there are some things that do not change. Drafting a quarterback within the first five picks is a no-no (except for Brady last year, but we all know how that panned out). If you are at the end of the first round and there is a Drew Brees FatHead staring at you, I’ll concede a man-crush pick.

If you have the 11th pick and he is staring at you, go ahead and draft Drew Brees.

However, WRs are so deep this year that wasting a first round pick on one is a bad choice. Besides, I don’t envision a WR being drafted until the second round. Lebron James doesn’t play football (yet), so drafting a TE would be foolish. K, DEF…I don’t think you would be reading this.

That being said, my first round mock draft is based solely on select attributes. These attributes can be determined based on answering these questions:

1. Is the RB in a committee? If so, does the ratio favor them as the primary back?This has become the burning question for all fantasy football owners. GMs and coaches now try to lengthen the careers of their backs by, well, playing less. I’m not surprised to see teams now with 3-4 running backs getting a significant amount of carries on any given Sunday. The question to answer here is – how good are the other backs?  This will determine the number of carries for the RB, and ultimately the number of yards/scoring opportunities.

2. Are they the go-to guy inside the red zone? This is also a big question. Touchdowns are crucial to the winning of fantasy football. If 20 yards = 1 point, an RB that rushes for 125 yds and 0 TDs equals the fantasy production of a goal line back who run for 5 yards and 1 TD.

3. Are they in a contract year? Like everyone else in America, you come in the work early and leave late during your review period. You push yourself to do better, work harder, get more accomplished. Running backs that are in their contract year (last year of their contract) are looking to splash a big payday in the following year. Look to these RBs to give it their all on the field.

4. Has there been any injuries to either knee or hamstring within the last 2 years? Injuries make or break your season. Hamstrings and knees (actually, any part of the leg) ususally cripple the fantasy production of running backs. If you are taking a player coming off surgery, make sure to grab a handcuff or build some depth.

5. How often will their team be winning at the start of the second half?How do NFL teams win? Control the game clock. Ask the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have some new hardware on their hands. In this day and age, you will see teams try to control the clock (except for the 2007 Patriots who just seemed to keep throwing to Randy Moss). This means sticking the ball in the RB’s hand and saying “stay in bounds, try to get the first down so we can kill more game clock”. With the exception of fumble and INT returns for TDs, opposing teams can’t score on you if they don’t have the ball.

On the other side of the equation, a team that has the ball and is down 2+ possessions will most likely start throwing. These RB’s will be seldom used during the “comeback”, unless they are used in the passing offense (Brian Westbrook, anyone?).

6. How good is their team’s offensive line? Are they known as run blockers or pass blockers? Regardless of their specialty, the importance of the battle in the trenches is crucial. Look to see teams that are determined to protect their starters with a brick wall of an offensive line. Also, look at the depth at offensive line and or how injury-prone the starters are.

7. How often is the back used in passing plays? This is more of a bonus, but if you are in a PPR league this increases the value dramatically.

8. What, generally, is the coach’s primary offensive scheme? A pass-happy offense (ie. West Coast) does not help the value of a RB. A balanced offense is ideal, as a team predominately known for running the ball down their throat can cause a good defense to stack the line.

9. How’s the schedule look? Theres an easy way to do this. Start at zer0. Add one if you are playing a bad defensive team at home. Subtract one if you are playing a good defensive team on the road. The rest, don’t change.

If you have a positive number, then most likely the schedule is in your favor. If negative, probably not.

Instead of trying to do W-L, YPG allowed, etc…most of the time your gut feeling on how a defense will perform at home and on the road is true.

10. Are they a “feel good” player? Are they considered a “safe” or “sexy” pick? Superstitious?Do you feel good or nervous having this player on your roster? A first round draft pick is a year committment, most of the time. Not that it applies here, but do you believe in the Madden curse? “Safe” and “Sexy” pick refers to the volatility of the production. Do you want 200 yds 4 TDs one week, and 16 YDs 0 TDs the next?

These are the burning questions all owners must look at while deciding their future. That in mind, here is my mock first round:

1. Adrian Peterson- Like OU’s Blake Griffin, the consensus #1 pick in the draft. Led the league last year in rushing yards with a 4.8 YPC. Just keep an eye out on that ankle. He will look to carry the offense on his shoulders again (with or without Brett Favre).

**Note: This draft gets really hairy after the number one pick. There are about 8 people that can go 2-6, so I’m sure you will see one of the possible 8P4 (what is 8P4, you ask?) combinations at your draft.

2. Maurice Jones Drew- Now that Fred Taylor is a Patriot, could MJD finally break 200 carries, 1000 yards, and 13 TD’s? I say yes. Could be the long-awaited breakout year. Offensive line here will help him accomplish that.

3. Michael Turner- Turner was the LT backing up LT in San Diego. He proved that last year with the Falcons, hitting paydirt 17 times and rushing for close to 1700 yards. I expect the same workload this year, with Tony Gonzo coming over to keep the defense honest.

4. Matt Forte - Another solid producer in his rookie campaign. My fear – the sophomore slump curse (the one I hate the most) and  the addition of Jay Cutler to the Bears (who wil throw, throw, and throw some more).

5. Frank Gore -Frank is a beast. A workhorse for the 49ers, he will have yet another solid year. The only thing is he need’s a good QB in front of him to be effective. Otherwise, expect 8 defensive players eying his jersey.

6. DeAngelo Williams – This Panther emerged as the best RB of 2008. You can’t argue with 1500+ yds and 18 TDs. Why so low? Meet Johnathan Stewart, the other member of the committee. I’d suggest drafting both if DeAngelo misses a beat.

7. Brian Westbrook – He is what’s called the “safe” pick. I’ve always seen him drafted as a first rounder since he broke out in the NFL. However, now with Buckhalter out, DeSean Jackson primed to break out, and huge upgrades  on the OL, Westbrook could be looking at a huge year.

8. Chris Johnson – He is one of the most fun players to watch in the NFL. His rookie season showed him slicing and dicing defenses, even when they threw 8 in the box. He’s got a crowded backfield, however, so keep and eye out on that committee.

9. Marion Barber – Caveat – Wade Phillips want Felix Jones to take on a starting role, and have Marion Barber go with the goal line. Also, Tashard Choice is going to be sprinkled in here and there, and that worries me as well. This makes me think Barber’s toe isn’t fully healed, cutting into his workload and overall carries.

That being said, goal line carries are goal line carries. This is the definition of a ”sexy” pick.

10. LT - Wow. Would you ever believe I’d be talking about Ladanian Tomlinson, the perennial #1 pick, being drafted at #10 in my mock?

Listen – Like the stock market, past results do not guarantee future earnings. He’s not #1 material - but if he can bounce back from his career low year (which, by the way, still was 1,110 yards and 11 TDs), you might look very, very smart grabbing him at this pick.

11. Drew Brees  – the FatHead’s on my wall…

I can’t ignore his numbers last year, and being the 11 pick I can grab my #1 running back at 14 and not stand to lose anything by drafting a Steven Jackson or Steve Slaton. Two rounds, two impact players. I’d love to get the #11 spot.

12. Clinton Portis – Portis is Portis. He’s showed great resolve over the past 2 years, playing in all 16 games and instilling confidence in fantasy owners once again. But, as he is probably the only weapon the ‘Skins have, he will face a lot of defenders targeting him.

Round 2 Coming up Next Week!