1. St. Louis Rams: QB Sam Bradford
2. Detroit Lions: DT Ndamukong Suh
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DT Gerald McCoy
4. Washington Redskins: OT Russell Okung
5. Kansas City Chiefs: OT Brian Bulaga
6. Seattle Seahawks: OT Trent Williams
7. Cleveland Browns: S Eric Berry
8. Oakland Raiders: OT Bruce Campbell
9. Buffalo Bills: NT Dan Williams
10. *Philadelphia Eagles (from Jacksonville Jaguars): S Earl Thomas
11. Denver Broncos: ILB Rolando McClain
12. Miami Dolphins: DE/OLB Jason Pierre-Paul
13. San Francisco 49ers: QB Jimmy Clausen
14. Seattle Seahawks: DE Derrick Morgan
15. New York Giants: RB C.J. Spiller
16. Tennessee Titans: CB Joe Haden
17. **New York Jets (from San Francisco 49ers): OG Mike Iupati
18. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Kyle Wilson
19. Atlanta Falcons: DE Brandon Graham
20. Houston Texans: RB Ryan Matthews
21. Cincinnati Bengals: WR Dez Bryant
22. New England Patriots: DE Jared Odrick
23. Green Bay Packers: C Maurkice Pouncey
24. *Jacksonville Jaguars (from Philadelphia Eagles): QB Tim Tebow
25. Baltimore Ravens: TE Jermaine Gresham
26. Arizona Cardinals: DE/OLB Sergio Kindle
27. Dallas Cowboys: FS Nate Allen
28. ***Cleveland Browns (from San Diego Chargers): QB Colt McCoy
29. **San Francisco 49ers (from New York Jets): DE/OLB Jerry Hughes
30. Minnesota Vikings: CB Devin McCourtey
31. Indianapolis Colts: OT Charles Brown
32. New Orleans Saints: OLB Sean Weatherspoon

April 5, 2010

#1 St. Louis Rams: QB Sam Bradford. The Rams are beginning to regret passing over Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez. There is absolutely no way the Rams will ever  win without a franchise quarterback.

#2 Detroit Lions: DT Ndamukong Suh. With the recent acquisition of LG Robert Sims the Lions need to upgrade the offensive line is no longer as essential as it was 24 hours ago. Now they can draft the best player available and draft an offensive linemen in the second round.

#3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DT Gerald McCoy. The Bucs defense is in transition and needs a pass rushing force up the middle. McCoy can become the replacement to Warren Sapp the franchise has been searching for.

#4 Washington Redskins: OT Russell Okung. Once they traded for Donovan McNabb every mock draft that had Jimmy Clausen here (this one included) had to make drastic changes. Now they that the team has a quarterback they need to protect him since the Redskins have the worst offensive line in the league.

#5 Kansas City Chiefs: OT Brian Bulaga. This offseason the Chiefs have upgraded the interior of their offensive line. Now they upgrade both edges with one pick. Bulaga can protect Matt Cassell’s blindside and Brandon Albert can move over to right tackle.

#6 Seattle Seahawks: OT Trent Williams. Walter Jones is not getting any younger, and his play has shown that. Eric Berry and Clausen are options here, but Seattle needs to rebuild in the trenches first.

#7 Cleveland Browns: S Eric Berry. After trading for CB Sheldon Brown cornerback is no longer an issue. Instead the Browns will take the best player available and address a serious need at safety.

#8 Oakland Raiders: OT Bruce Campbell. Some will argue if Campbell is even worth a first round pick. Others will argue that Campbell is not worth a top ten pick. However, the Raiders are unlike other franchises and over value players with speed. An offensive tackle running a 4.8 forty is almost unheard of. Once Campbell ran that well it is now an upset if any other player is taken with this pick.

#9 Buffalo Bills: QB Tim Tebow. A week ago I would have thought this was crazy. Hell even 24 hours ago I would have thought this was crazy. The McNabb trade just 18 days before the draft has completely changed the complexion of the first round. With the only top tier OT left being Anthony Davis (some would say he’s a reach at this pick) the Bills look to address other issues. This pick came down between Davis, Tebow, Clausen and NT Dan Williams. The Bills can address NT in the second round by drafting either Terrence Cody or Cam Thomas. This means the pick comes down to Clausen and Tebow. I am a much bigger Clausen fan than I am a Tebow fan and think Clausen could start week 1. However, the Bills need to sell tickets just as bad as Jacksonville. They cannot take any risks that they do not take him and hope he falls.

#10 Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Derrick Morgan. The Jags play against Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub in 25% of their games. Even though they signed Aaron Kampman they need a DE that can help generate pressure.

#11 Denver Broncos: ILB Rolando McClain. NT Dan Williams is a huge possibility at this spot, but ILB is a bigger need for the team.

#12 Miami Dolphins: NT Dan Williams. The Dolphins draft the replacement of Jason Ferguson.

#13 San Francisco 49ers: CB Joe Haden. Haden would immediately start opposite Nate Clements in the 49ers secondary.

#14 Seattle Seahawks: WR Dez Bryant. Pete Carrol gets the big play making WR he desires. He’ll believe that he can be the guy that can fix Bryant’s off field issues.

#15 New York Giants: MLB Sean Weatherspoon. In the Giants defense Weatherspoon would immediately fill the void at the Mike Linebacker spot left by Antonio Pierce.

#16 Tennessee Titans: DE Jason Pierre-Paul. The Titans biggest issue is defensive end and just like the Jags they play two elite QBs 4 times a year.

#17 San Francisco 49ers: RB C.J. Spiller. Spiller becomes a great home threat to compliment Gore’s smash mouth running style.

#18 Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Kyle Wilson. The Steelers secondary has needed an elite corner for years and finally has one in Wilson.

#19 Atlanta Falcons: DE Brandon Graham. The aging John Abraham can no longer rush the passer like he did two years ago. Graham comes in to help the defensive line create more pressure and generate more sacks.

#20 Houston Texans: S Earl Thomas. The Texans are constantly torched by Peyton Manning. Thomas is the type of instinctive and ball hawking safety the Texans need in order to beat the Colts.

#21 Cincinnati Bengals: TE Jermaine Gresham. Carson Palmer has never had a pass catching tight end to throw to. Gresham becomes a huge red zone target for the Bengals.

#22 New England Patriots: DE Jared Odrick. The Patriots are known for drafting big defensive linemen in the first round and that trend will continue this year. Odrick would start immediately at RE to replace Richard Seymour.

#23 Green Bay Packers: CB Kareem Jackson. Even though Charles Woodson won Defensive Player of the Year in 2009 neither him or Al Harris are getting any younger. The Packers secondary got torched against Arizona in the playoffs and Jackson will be groomed to become their heir apparent.

#24 Philadelphia Eagles: C Maurkice Pouncey. At first this pick seems ridiculous. The Eagles have serious issues at almost every defensive position. On the other hand the Eagles have 11 draft picks throughout the draft and will have plenty of opportunities to address their defensive needs. Pouncey would fill in for the injured Jamaal Jackson until he returns. Then Pouncey will be able to move over to guard. Andy Reid loves smart big offensive linemen like Pouncey. I believe this would be the best value pick in the first round.

#25 Baltimore Ravens: CB Devin McCourty. The Ravens secondary has begun to show its age and is no longer the invincible force it once was.

#26 Arizona Cardinals: OLB Sergio Kindle. The Cardinals gave up 45 points in back to back playoff games. They need to be able to generate pressure on the quarterback in order to stop opposing offenses.

#27 Dallas Cowboys: FS Nate Allen. The other option here is G Mike Iupati. For weeks I thought Iupati would be the pick, but Jerry Jones has never drafted an offensive linemen in the first round and I don’t know if this is the year that changes.

#28 San Diego Chargers: RB Ryan Matthews. The second best value pick in the first round. I am very high on Ryan Matthews and actually think he can be a better pro player than C.J. Spiller.

#29 New York Jets: OLB Jerry Hughes. Vernon Gholston has been a bust in his first two years. The Jets need another outside force to line up opposite Calvin Pace.

#30 Minnesota Vikings: QB Jimmy Clausen. Free falling worst than Brady Quinn in 2007, Jimmy Clausen falls victim to the McNabb trade and to the Bills drafting Tebow. Clausen will either sit for a year and learn from Brett Favre or be able to start right away if Favre retires.

#31 Indianapolis Colts: G Mike Iupati. The Colts offensive line is mediocre and only looks good because of Manning’s quick decision making and release.

#32 New Orleans Saints: DT Brian Price. The Saints need to do a better job of stopping the run up the middle. Having Price next to Sedrick Ellis would make it very difficult for teams to run up the gut.

Surprise! Brett Favre signed with the Minnesota Vikings. He will be in the purple and gold next season and will compete for the starting job against Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels.

Or is it a surprise? Did anyone else see this coming?

This irks me for so many reasons. First off, why are the Vikings encouraging this guy? Once he said he was coming back at the beginning of the summer people were already sick of hearing him talk. He said he was getting surgery, then he was going to stay retired…then he said he was applying at Target for the head cashier position…and now he decides to play professional football again.

He is- and always has been-a drama queen. The only reason it was OK when he was on the Packers is because the guy could throw the ball like it was shot out of a cannon. More importantly, he won games. Last year on the Jets he showed flashes for the first part of the season, but his aging/injured arm should have been all the reason in the world to hang it up.

If you are the Vikings, how can you hang your young, talented team out to dry like this? They have the most potent run game in the league with Adrian Peterson. The Vikes also have an offense built and designed around speed and quickness. They drafted the lightning-rod Percy Harvin and signed speedster Bernard Berrian last year. Now add the much younger Jackson or Rosenfels to the mix and you have an offense that will cause headaches for defenses every week. The last thing this team needs is a 40 year-old who I guarantee will throw more picks than touchdowns this year.

Now that’s off my chest, lets talk fantasy value. He will help out the young wide outs running down the sideline by being able to throw the deep ball. I can see an improvement in Harvin’s and Berrian’s stock, and perhaps gives Sidney Rice some late round consideration. As for Favre himself he will probably be a good spot start for most leagues. His interception problem will hurt you (especially if it means negative points) but no doubt he is due for at least two or three eye popping games this year. They do play Detroit twice…

If the Vikings had any faith in their team right now, they wouldn’t have exposed them to the biggest distraction in the sport- Brett Favre.

RGF Projected Stats- 3065 yds, 18 tds, 23 ints

Lewis deep in thought at the 2009 WSOP

Just to let you know – Dave Lewis, one of our writers at rgffootball.com, won a free seat at the World Series of Poker Main Event. He lasted until the last level of Day 2 against some of poker’s biggest names.

The writers at RGFfootball want to congratulate Lewis on this achievement and playing in the world’s biggest poker tournament!

-C & J

As a football fan, I admired Steve McNair’s undying leadership on and off the field. He will be remembered for his dedication to the game and his tireless work; which led him to numerous playoff berths, including a SuperBowl.

The writers at rgffootball.com offer their condolences and prayers to the McNair family.

Of course, there are some things that do not change. Drafting a quarterback within the first five picks is a no-no (except for Brady last year, but we all know how that panned out). If you are at the end of the first round and there is a Drew Brees FatHead staring at you, I’ll concede a man-crush pick.

If you have the 11th pick and he is staring at you, go ahead and draft Drew Brees.

However, WRs are so deep this year that wasting a first round pick on one is a bad choice. Besides, I don’t envision a WR being drafted until the second round. Lebron James doesn’t play football (yet), so drafting a TE would be foolish. K, DEF…I don’t think you would be reading this.

That being said, my first round mock draft is based solely on select attributes. These attributes can be determined based on answering these questions:

1. Is the RB in a committee? If so, does the ratio favor them as the primary back?This has become the burning question for all fantasy football owners. GMs and coaches now try to lengthen the careers of their backs by, well, playing less. I’m not surprised to see teams now with 3-4 running backs getting a significant amount of carries on any given Sunday. The question to answer here is – how good are the other backs?  This will determine the number of carries for the RB, and ultimately the number of yards/scoring opportunities.

2. Are they the go-to guy inside the red zone? This is also a big question. Touchdowns are crucial to the winning of fantasy football. If 20 yards = 1 point, an RB that rushes for 125 yds and 0 TDs equals the fantasy production of a goal line back who run for 5 yards and 1 TD.

3. Are they in a contract year? Like everyone else in America, you come in the work early and leave late during your review period. You push yourself to do better, work harder, get more accomplished. Running backs that are in their contract year (last year of their contract) are looking to splash a big payday in the following year. Look to these RBs to give it their all on the field.

4. Has there been any injuries to either knee or hamstring within the last 2 years? Injuries make or break your season. Hamstrings and knees (actually, any part of the leg) ususally cripple the fantasy production of running backs. If you are taking a player coming off surgery, make sure to grab a handcuff or build some depth.

5. How often will their team be winning at the start of the second half?How do NFL teams win? Control the game clock. Ask the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have some new hardware on their hands. In this day and age, you will see teams try to control the clock (except for the 2007 Patriots who just seemed to keep throwing to Randy Moss). This means sticking the ball in the RB’s hand and saying “stay in bounds, try to get the first down so we can kill more game clock”. With the exception of fumble and INT returns for TDs, opposing teams can’t score on you if they don’t have the ball.

On the other side of the equation, a team that has the ball and is down 2+ possessions will most likely start throwing. These RB’s will be seldom used during the “comeback”, unless they are used in the passing offense (Brian Westbrook, anyone?).

6. How good is their team’s offensive line? Are they known as run blockers or pass blockers? Regardless of their specialty, the importance of the battle in the trenches is crucial. Look to see teams that are determined to protect their starters with a brick wall of an offensive line. Also, look at the depth at offensive line and or how injury-prone the starters are.

7. How often is the back used in passing plays? This is more of a bonus, but if you are in a PPR league this increases the value dramatically.

8. What, generally, is the coach’s primary offensive scheme? A pass-happy offense (ie. West Coast) does not help the value of a RB. A balanced offense is ideal, as a team predominately known for running the ball down their throat can cause a good defense to stack the line.

9. How’s the schedule look? Theres an easy way to do this. Start at zer0. Add one if you are playing a bad defensive team at home. Subtract one if you are playing a good defensive team on the road. The rest, don’t change.

If you have a positive number, then most likely the schedule is in your favor. If negative, probably not.

Instead of trying to do W-L, YPG allowed, etc…most of the time your gut feeling on how a defense will perform at home and on the road is true.

10. Are they a “feel good” player? Are they considered a “safe” or “sexy” pick? Superstitious?Do you feel good or nervous having this player on your roster? A first round draft pick is a year committment, most of the time. Not that it applies here, but do you believe in the Madden curse? “Safe” and “Sexy” pick refers to the volatility of the production. Do you want 200 yds 4 TDs one week, and 16 YDs 0 TDs the next?

These are the burning questions all owners must look at while deciding their future. That in mind, here is my mock first round:

1. Adrian Peterson- Like OU’s Blake Griffin, the consensus #1 pick in the draft. Led the league last year in rushing yards with a 4.8 YPC. Just keep an eye out on that ankle. He will look to carry the offense on his shoulders again (with or without Brett Favre).

**Note: This draft gets really hairy after the number one pick. There are about 8 people that can go 2-6, so I’m sure you will see one of the possible 8P4 (what is 8P4, you ask?) combinations at your draft.

2. Maurice Jones Drew- Now that Fred Taylor is a Patriot, could MJD finally break 200 carries, 1000 yards, and 13 TD’s? I say yes. Could be the long-awaited breakout year. Offensive line here will help him accomplish that.

3. Michael Turner- Turner was the LT backing up LT in San Diego. He proved that last year with the Falcons, hitting paydirt 17 times and rushing for close to 1700 yards. I expect the same workload this year, with Tony Gonzo coming over to keep the defense honest.

4. Matt Forte - Another solid producer in his rookie campaign. My fear – the sophomore slump curse (the one I hate the most) and  the addition of Jay Cutler to the Bears (who wil throw, throw, and throw some more).

5. Frank Gore -Frank is a beast. A workhorse for the 49ers, he will have yet another solid year. The only thing is he need’s a good QB in front of him to be effective. Otherwise, expect 8 defensive players eying his jersey.

6. DeAngelo Williams – This Panther emerged as the best RB of 2008. You can’t argue with 1500+ yds and 18 TDs. Why so low? Meet Johnathan Stewart, the other member of the committee. I’d suggest drafting both if DeAngelo misses a beat.

7. Brian Westbrook – He is what’s called the “safe” pick. I’ve always seen him drafted as a first rounder since he broke out in the NFL. However, now with Buckhalter out, DeSean Jackson primed to break out, and huge upgrades  on the OL, Westbrook could be looking at a huge year.

8. Chris Johnson – He is one of the most fun players to watch in the NFL. His rookie season showed him slicing and dicing defenses, even when they threw 8 in the box. He’s got a crowded backfield, however, so keep and eye out on that committee.

9. Marion Barber – Caveat – Wade Phillips want Felix Jones to take on a starting role, and have Marion Barber go with the goal line. Also, Tashard Choice is going to be sprinkled in here and there, and that worries me as well. This makes me think Barber’s toe isn’t fully healed, cutting into his workload and overall carries.

That being said, goal line carries are goal line carries. This is the definition of a ”sexy” pick.

10. LT - Wow. Would you ever believe I’d be talking about Ladanian Tomlinson, the perennial #1 pick, being drafted at #10 in my mock?

Listen – Like the stock market, past results do not guarantee future earnings. He’s not #1 material - but if he can bounce back from his career low year (which, by the way, still was 1,110 yards and 11 TDs), you might look very, very smart grabbing him at this pick.

11. Drew Brees  – the FatHead’s on my wall…

I can’t ignore his numbers last year, and being the 11 pick I can grab my #1 running back at 14 and not stand to lose anything by drafting a Steven Jackson or Steve Slaton. Two rounds, two impact players. I’d love to get the #11 spot.

12. Clinton Portis – Portis is Portis. He’s showed great resolve over the past 2 years, playing in all 16 games and instilling confidence in fantasy owners once again. But, as he is probably the only weapon the ‘Skins have, he will face a lot of defenders targeting him.

Round 2 Coming up Next Week!

Everyone is very aware of how bad this economy is. Money is extremely tight. So when you are drafting this year don’t get caught paying too much for your players. Make sure you get the most value for your pick even if it means passing up on a brand name and buying generic. Every year I have a list of players I wouldn’t touch unless I was getting ridiculous value for my pick. To establish some credibility I did worn fantasy owners last year to stay away from Brett Favre, Tom Brady, Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, and Willie Parker. There are just some guys that are in situations where the risk out weighs the reward or I wouldn’t be getting enough value out of my pick. Here is my list of players to let other owners draft this summer otherwise buyer beware.

LaDanian Tomlinson RB San Diego Chargers- I am anticipating some flack for putting this future Hall of Fame Running Back on my Do Not Draft List. Here’s the thing, Tomlinson will reach the dreaded 30 years old mark at the start of the season. In addition the Chargers made sure they applied the franchise tag on Darren Sproles who took advantage of every opportunity given to him by Tomlinson’s injuries late last season. Tomlinson posted career low numbers in rushing attempts (292), and yardage (1110) which is still respectable in the NFL however it is not worth the 1st round price tag owners will be paying this season. The Chargers have the problem that they have so many offensive weapons that there is not enough ball to go around. Chambers, Jackson, Gates, and Sproles including  LT will being fighting for balls this season more  than Neil Patrick Harris and Lance Bass in a gay bar . Look for Sproles to steal some carries late in games and on some third down situations as the Chargers should try to preserve their 30 year old work horse.

Philip Rivers QB San Diego Chargers- I am not attacking the San Diego Chargers actually they are going to greatly improve on there 8-8 record they posted last year and that is percisely why Rivers will be over drafted. Rivers went for 4009 yards last season and 34 TDs. Rivers had to toss the rock though because the Chargers were down in a lot of games. Look for the Defense to re-establish itself this season and for Rivers’s numbers to come back down to earth as a result of that. In addition The Chargers face the toughest schedule in the NFL against the pass. Rivers will still be good for 3500 yards and roughly 25 TDs however Schuab, McNabb, Garrard, and Palmer will all post similar stats at a discounted price.

Thomas Jones – RB New York Jets -  My sleeper last year paid off with a career year an AFC leading 1312 yards and a remarkable 13 TDs despite a pitiful 2 total the year prior. His sleeper status came at the fact that the Jets reinforced a solid O-line with Alan Faneca and there was no other threat to take the ball away from the 30 year old Jones last year. This season Jones will be 31 and the Jets went out and drafted Shonn Greene. Now Jones will benefit if the Jets drop the ball and rush Mark Sanchez under center however if the Jets play it smart Kellen Clemens will see a full season at QB and Jones’s numbers will drop off. Jones is an age risk at 31 and will be sharing carries with Shonn Green and Leon Washington will not go carry-less this season.

Clinton Portis- RB Washington Redskins- Portis is 28 years old but in the last two seasons no one has carried the pigskin more than Portis(642 carries from 2007-2008). Portis started to collapse in the second half of 2008. The wear and tear is what scares me about Portis and no one likes to see a top pick not pan out.

Brian Westbrook- RB Philidelphia Eagles- Westbrook is coming off ankle surgery this year and he’s not getting any younger as he is hitting the dread 30 yr mark come September 2nd. Mix that with LeSean McCoy being drafted to eventually replace Westbrook and you’ve go all the fixin’s for a high risk martini.

Antonio Bryant- WR Tampa Bay Buccanneers-  I know Bryant is typically known for his consistency and dominate play (that was sarcasm for those who didn’t know who Bryant was till last year). Bryant has a new quarterback this year with Byron Leftwich or Josh Freeman we’ll see. Bryant also has a new coach as Raheem Morris has replace Jon Gruden.

Eli Manning- QB New York Giants- Manning grew up a lot from 2007 to 2008 but I have a feeling he is going to miss the presence of Plaxico Burress over the top and Derrik Ward underneath not to mention Amani Toomer is also no longer on the team.

Other Statistics that will help with getting the most bang for your buck.

Cover Of Madden Curse- Larry Fitzgerald

Over Worked Runningbacks 2007-2008

Clinton Portis- 642

LaDanian Tomlinson- 607

Thomas Jones- 600

Jamal Lewis-577

Adrian Peterson-576

Willie Parker-531

Marshawn Lynch-531

Brian Westbrrok-511

Lendal White- 503

Frank Gore- 500

Ryan Grant- 500

Steven Jackson- 491

30+ Year Old Backs

Edgerrin James

Thomas Jones

Jamal Lewis

Fred Taylor

LaDanian Tomlinson

Ricky Williams

1. Matthew Stafford seemed very relaxed on draft day. It must be nice knowing you are getting millions of dollars of guaranteed money prior to being selected. That’s enough money to forget it is still the Detroit Lions. However, there is upside here – Dante Culpepper has been improving (that is, he has lost nearly 30lbs) and has looked good during workouts. If Culpepper can hold out long enough for Stafford to learn the system, he’s got some nice weapons to throw to (including first rounder Brandon Pettigrew).

2. Picks 4-7 would determine the tone for the rest of the day. All of the drama would take place during this 35-40 minutes. It surely did not dissapoint. Watching the Jets trade up to the 5th pick to take Mark Sanchez was a stunner. Rex Ryan now has a rookie quarterback that can control the offense. Couple that with 3 solid running backs, and vastly improved and explosive defense…sounds a whole lot like the Ravens system.

2(a). Darrius Heyward-Bey. I never have and will never understand the logic of the Oakland Raiders. I think they seriously do things out of spite. I have no problem whatsoever with the selection, but trade out to another team and get an additional 3rd-4th rounder (at least…). I projected Bey going to the (Jets) Browns at 17.

3. The Buccaneers not only drafting Josh Freeman, but trading up to draft Josh Freeman. Surprise move, to say the least. Freeman has raw talent but will need to learn the pro system before he will produce. One must think he has to make the team first, as the Bucs usually have an average of 7 QB’s at the start of training camp…

4. Giants found their potential replacement to Burress with Hakeem Nicks. I really, really like this pick. He looked great in the skills competition and the combine and could be a potential impact player week 1.

5. The drafting of not one, but two centers in the first round. First time that has happened since 1983. That being said, I don’t understand Eric Mangini’s moves, at all. Trading down twice to draft a center in the first round. They easily could have drafted Mack round 2 at the 36th pick, and could have taken the falling Maclin at 17 or 19.

Next week I will analyze the rest of the draft, along with rankings of impact rookies for the forthcoming fantasy football season.